Sunday, October 08, 2006

Preliminary election results

With 970 of 1006 precints reporting:
Tautas Partija 19.52%
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība 16.81%
Jaunais laiks 16.12%
"Saskaņas Centrs" 14.10%
LPP/LC 8.53%
"Tēvzemei un Brīvībai"/LNNK 6.80%
PCTVL 5.85%
From region-by-region results and my Excel spreadsheet, here are the projected numbers of seats in the parliament:
Tautas Partija 23
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība 18
Jaunais laiks 18
"Saskaņas Centrs" 18
"Tēvzemei un Brīvībai"/LNNK 7
As usual, the region-by-region formula distorts the vote proportions a bit. The numbers are nearly final (98-100% vote counted) for all regions except Riga. Riga results may shift by a seat or two. The most likely possibility is Jaunais Laiks gaining one more seat, either from "Tēvzemei un Brīvībai"/LNNK or Saskanas Centrs.

The current TP+ZZS+LPP/LC coalition is currently at 51 seats (out of 100) and this total is unlikely to change. Will Kalvitis be the first prime minister (since 1990) who keeps his position after the election?

UPDATE (10:25pm): Diena has a different projection, with 1 more seat for ZZS and TB/LNNK and 2 less for Saskanas Centrs. I checked my calculations but did not find any mistake.

Meanwhile, the only uncounted votes left are from abroad (including mine!). The projected seat totals have not changed. The abroad votes are credited to Riga region and can still result in Jaunais Laiks gaining a seat there.

Friday, October 06, 2006

Final opinion poll

From Latvijas Fakti, polling conducted on October 2-4, change compared to the previous week:
Tautas Partija 13.7% (+1.1)
ZZS 12.4% (+0.1)
Jaunais Laiks 9.5% (+2.4)
PCTVL 9.4% (+0.8)
Saskanas Centrs 8.9% (+3.2)
LPP/LC 6.8% (+0.9)
TB/LNNK 5.1% (-0.7)
Social Democrats 3.9% (+0.4)

Social Democrats are almost exactly on the 5% borderline. (3.9% of all polled people corresponds to 5% of those who have chosen a party to vote for.)
Projected seats in the parliament:
Tautas Partija 20 (-2)
ZZS 18 (-3)
Jaunais Laiks 14 (+2)
PCTVL 13 (-2)
Saskanas Centrs 13 (+3)
LPP/LC 10 (unch.)
TB/LNNK 7 (-3)
Social Democrats 5 (+5)

Looks like four more years of divided parliament, with at least three different government coalitions in this time. As it has been since the independence.

Tuesday, October 03, 2006

Opinion piece in Monday's Diena

Monday's Diena newspaper had an opinion article by Peteris Strautins in which he expresses worries similar to my Saturday's post, but in much more outspoken form. The article is now in the subscription-only archive but here is a quote:

Ja finanšu tirgi neceretu, ka Latvija parskatama nakotne tomer pievienosies eiro, mes savu riskanto ekonomikas raditaju del jau sen butu piedzivojuši kapitala begšanu. Virkne Latvijas ekonomikas arejo indikatoru ir krietni sliktaki neka Austrumazijas valstis pirms 1997.gada lielas finanšu krizes. Krizes skartajas valstis tekoša konta deficits videji bija 5% no IK, ka jau teikts, Latvija tas patlaban ir 18%. Varbut psihologisko luzumu radis 20% robežas parsniegšana?

If financial markets did not hope that Latvia would join euro in foreseeable future, we would have experienced capital flight long ago, due to our risky economy. Several of Latvia's external economic indicators are much worse than in East Asian countries before the big financial crisis of 1997. In the affected countries, the current account deficit before the crisis was, on average, 5% of GDP. As I already said, it's now 18% in Latvia. Maybe, there will be a psychological breakpoint after the deficit exceeds 20%?

Sunday, October 01, 2006

The world is not very interested

about next week's Latvian parliamentary election. Only 8 foreign journalists have been accredited by Central Election Committee so far.